increases by the same 20 points. In some States, there is a
50+ point swing in favor of liquid heating fuels.
Voters identified cost concerns as the issue that gave
them the most pause about supporting electrification. The
upfront cost to electrify, the impact on low-income families
and likely electric rate increases all resonated and contributed
to the big shift from support to opposition.
Additionally, voters identified the inefficacy of electric
heat pumps during cold weather and the fragility of the
electric grid as other areas of concern.
The Most Important Takeaway
Initial support for electrification is very strong (66% support/
23% oppose). However, once voters understand the
downsides of electrification, support drops and opposition
increases significantly. Voter opinion can be moved,
but only if voters are educated and we are able to
raise awareness about the pitfalls of electrification.
Otherwise, electrification advocates will continue to
believe they are executing the will of the voters.
Going All-In to Engage the Public
The findings from the research give us a roadmap for
ensuring a future for liquid heating fuels. We will need to
improve how heating oil is perceived, elevate awareness
about Bioheat® fuel and increase understanding among
the general population, as well as the political class, that
we deserve a seat at the table. However, first we need to
slow down the political freight train that is electrification.
The only way that happens is if we do a good job of alerting
the public—and then activating them to push back—
about the real downsides of the planned electrification of
our economy.
Consumers have mostly been sold a bill of goods, but
right now they see electrification as a good thing. Benefits
have been overblown, issues with electric technologies
downplayed, adoption costs completely underreported and
alternatives ignored if they include combustion.
This isn’t a battle that NORA or Clean Fuels Alliance
America can wage, although their funding is
what has allowed for powerful pro-oil and pro-Bioheat
® fuel content, tools and strategies to be available
to dealers and associations. The only way to succeed is
for industry leaders—dealers, manufacturers, suppliers,
supporting companies—to be “all-in” on the fight
for the future. This includes:
• Providing the funding to execute the necessary political,
legislative and consumer outreach strategies
that have proven so effective
• Engaging their own employees and customer bases
to stand up, push back and protect their jobs and
their wallets
• Participating in lobbying efforts at the local, State
and regional levels
Perhaps the greatest source of optimism the industry
can derive is, that unlike previous battles, this
time around we know all of the answers to all of the
most important questions. We know who we are fighting,
we know how to fight, and thanks to the leadership
shown by dealers and association leaders in a
number of States, we know what a successful playbook
looks like. The only question left to answer is, “How
big will our war chest be?” New Jersey went to battle
with $1,200,000. New York is fighting with $725,000
and counting. Connecticut has raised a few hundred
thousand dollars for its fight.
The moral of this story is that not only can we successfully
engage the public to help us fight this battle,
we absolutely must. We can hope that, eventually, the
downsides of electrification will become apparent and
cooler political heads will prevail, but a huge amount
of damage will already have been done to the industry
before that happens. If we are not all-in, we will
surely be left out. ICM
ICM/September/October 2022 5