COVID-19 pandemic forecasts
32 Spray May 2020
Continued from page 19 Run toward theLight
According to a recent report from market
research firm Kline & Co., the U.S.
Personal Care market is on track to experience
the sharpest decline ever recorded in
the 60+ years Kline has been tracking the
market due to the COVID-19 pandemic. So
far, the 0.8% drop in 2009 during the last
recession is the biggest market dip ever
reported by Kline. The only other time Kline
noted a market decrease was a 0.3% falloff
in 1991 amid another recession.
Previously forecast to grow at a compounded
annual growth rate (CAGR) of
3.8% through 2023, Kline has revised its
forecasts for the $75 billion U.S. market due
to the unfolding crisis. New forecasts indicate
a decline of 2.5% in 2020 as the most
likely outcome, with the best-case scenario
reflecting a 1.5% gain and the worst-case
scenario at an 8.1% drop. Given the current
state of the pandemic, with lockdowns now
inching closer toward summer months, the
current worst-case scenario may, in fact,
become the most-likely scenario.
“Given the unprecedented situation that
is unfolding globally as both a health crisis
as well as a financial one, it is not surprising
that the beauty market should experience
its worst performance now,” said Carrie
Mellage, VP of Kline’s Consumer Products
Practice.
“Even our worst-case scenario of 8%
probably does not feel steep enough given
the dark days we are all living in, but there
are enough essential categories in the mix
to keep the market stable.”
Kline’s forecasting analysis clusters beauty
categories into four groups. Sun Care
falls into the “Soothing Solutions” category,
along with facial skin care, shaving products,
hair coloring and nail polish. Some
negative impact is expected, but consumers
may turn to these product categories
for a treat and/or to maintain or establish a
controllable part of their routine.
The “Rescue” category—which includes
personal cleansing products such as hand
sanitizers, liquid hand soaps and hand and
body lotions are seeing spiked levels, as
these emergency categories are needed
more than ever. Higher than usual consumption
will occur during this health crisis
before normalizing.
The “Everyday Basics” category, which
includes baby care, AP/Deos, multicultural
hair care, lip balm, personal cleansers,
shampoos and conditioners, will see consumption
continue as usual with minimal
impact.
The “Can Wait” category—fragrances,
hairstyling products, makeup and skin care
for men—will suffer the most. Consumption
will decline sharply during social
distancing and sales will likely continue to
suffer during the economic fall-out in the
years to come, said Kline & Co.
translucent foam is dye-free, streak-free and
available in two shades: Medium and Deep.
The color develops within four hours, peaks
at 24 hours and lasts for days. It leaves skin
visibly moisturized with no color transfer and
a fresh, tropical scent of passion fruit essence.
Albéa’s Thomaston, CT plant supplies its F2
foam pump to deliver creamy, soft foam.
Bondi Sands Aero, an aerated, self-tanning
foam, has dual tanning actives and a signature
coconut scent. The ultra-lightweight aerosol
foam leaves skin with a deep, long-lasting,
bronzed glow. The natural tan hydrates skin
with every application and comes in Dark,
Ultra Dark, Light/Medium, Liquid Gold
and One Hour Express.
Into the sunset…
What’s next for sun care? As wellness trends continue to
expand within beauty and personal care, Mintel suggests
that brands should think beyond the inclusion of certain
health-focused ingredients to create a more holistic story. Being
tanned is often associated with being healthy in Western
markets, so a wellness story pairs well with product offerings.
Sunless tanner brands should look beyond the simple
aesthetic marketing storyline and incorporate information
about the sun’s harmful and damaging effects over time.
Educating consumers and using mild scare tactics will help
to boost sales, explained Mintel. Brands that make use of
sunless tanning products’ mess-free applications will help
ease first-time users into the process. Clear formulations will
also appear less intense than their highly pigmented counterparts,
which may have consumer appeal. Spray
Sunless tanner brands should look beyond
the simple aesthetic marketing storyline
and incorporate information about the sun’s
harmful and damaging effects over time...